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Washington CNN —Americans haven’t felt any better about the economy these past few months, but they haven’t felt any worse either. The Federal Reserve cares whether or not Americans have faith that inflation will eventually return to levels they’re used to. Consumer prices were 3.5% higher in March from a year earlier, a much bigger increase than February’s 3.2% and above what economists were forecasting. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.4%, also above expectations. The economy is coming into focusEveryday Americans, on the other hand, haven’t fretted about progress on inflation potentially stalling.
Persons: haven’t, , Joanne Hsu, ” Oren Klachkin, Stocks, Goldman Sachs, , ” Goldman Sachs’s, Jan Hatzius, they’re, Joe Biden, Biden, Donald Trump Organizations: Washington CNN, University of Michigan’s, Consumers, Nationwide, CPI, Bank of America, CNN Locations: Pennsylvania, Scranton , Pennsylvania
Trump has floated a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports, a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 100% tariff on foreign cars – including from Mexico. Trump’s proposals, if enacted, could easily set off a new trade war with China and potentially other nations, too. Some economists are warning Trump’s trade agenda and the ensuing retaliation from trading partners would hurt the US economy by worsening inflation, killing jobs, depressing growth and spooking investors. It’s hard to say exactly because there is a lot of uncertainty over how much of Trump’s proposed agenda would actually be enacted. That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately consumers.
Persons: he’s, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Alex Durante, Trump’s, , Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, ” Goldman, Janet Yellen, Joe Biden’s, Karoline Leavitt, ” “, ” Leavitt, , Biden, “ Donald Trump, ” Biden, James Singer, Biden’s, That’s, Durante, Joe Brusuelas, don’t, ” Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Liz, Maury Obstfeld, Obstfeld, Obama, ” Durante Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Tax Foundation, CNN, Trump, China, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, RSM, Target, Walmart, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, US International Trade Commission, , Obama Locations: New York, China, Mexico, Beijing, United States
But the Caixin manufacturing PMI — which focuses on smaller, private companies — rose to 50.9 in February, up from 50.8 in January, according to S&P Global, which compiled the survey. The divergence in the output and new order sub-indexes is likely related to differences in geographic and sector coverage, as the Caixin PMI covers more southern regions, they said. “Overall, the manufacturing sector continued to improve in February,” said Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, in a statement that accompanied the Caixin PMI data. “Looking ahead, the focus should be on the effectiveness of the measures [announced previously by Beijing to boost growth],” Wang said. “Fiscal policy will lead the way,” HSBC analysts said Friday.
Persons: ” Goldman Sachs, , Wang Zhe, ” Wang, Xi Jinping, Lintao Zhang, Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, P, National People’s Congress, PMI, Caixin Insight, , of People, Communist Party’s Politburo, NPC, Xinhua, HSBC Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Southern China, Guangdong, Zheijang, ” China
London CNN —The Magnificent 7 tech stocks have been a big part of the extraordinary US market rally. But there’s a rival group of companies powering European stocks to new heights with even better returns, by some measures. Dubbed the “Granolas,” those 11 companies accounted for 60% of the gains on Europe’s benchmark stock index over the past 12 months. They have even slightly outperformed the Magnificent 7 over a longer period, according to Goldman Sachs. Their standout performance has “raised the issue of concentration effects” in the region’s stock market, says Philip Lawlor, managing director of markets research at Wilshire Indexes.
Persons: London CNN —, Goldman Sachs, ASML, ” Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs, Guillaume Jaisson, Ozempic, , Philip Lawlor, ” Lawlor Organizations: London CNN, GSK, Roche, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, L’Oréal, AstraZeneca, SAP, Sanofi, , CNN, Danish, Wilshire Indexes, , Deutsche Bank Locations: LVMH, Europe, France, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, Netherlands, United Kingdom, United States
That’s because prices for groceries are up 1.2% year over year, while the price of food consumed at restaurants is up 5.1%. And in this election year, higher food prices, which rose last month to their highest monthly rate in a year, could present problems for President Joe Biden’s campaign. In January 2023, it was cheaper to dine out, with food prices up 8.2% compared to the prior year. In the post-pandemic world, consumers have been devoting more of their budgets to services compared to goods. As a whole, prices for services — which include dining out, transportation and entertainment — were up 0.7% in January compared to the prior month.
Persons: you’ve, Joe Biden’s, What’s, , Dana Peterson, ” Goldman Sachs Organizations: New, New York CNN, Conference Board Locations: New York
Today, remote work has declined from its levels of the pandemic but is still – depending on how broadly one measures it – three to four times as prevalent as it was in 2019. And remote work tends to be dominated by higher-educated employees, with nearly 40% of those holding advanced degrees hybrid or fully remote. In early January, LinkedIn’s Global State of Remote and Hybrid Work study found that at its peak, in April of 2022, the share of job postings that offered remote work reached 20.3%. The more enduring feature of remote work is now hybrid.”There are also substantial differences within industry and among countries. “You’re moving to where the housing is cheaper.”Not that it is all rosy when it comes to remote work.
Persons: , Kory Kantenga, Sandra Moran, Julia Pollak, Nick Bunker, Layla O’Kane, Lightcast, Morris Davis, Andra Ghent, Jesse Gregory, ” Goldman Sachs, Boyer, Brad Case, “ That’s, Software’s Moran Organizations: LinkedIn, Workforce Software, LinkedIn’s Global, Labor Statistics, North, , Oxford University Press, Economic Studies, Rutgers University, Andra, University of Utah, University of Wisconsin, Ivory, Google, NASA, Middleburg Communities, Green Mountain Locations: U.S, Israel, Ghent, Real Estate, Santa Ana , California, LLC.org . New York, Huntsville , Alabama, Huntsville, Glendale , Arizona, Phoenix, Arlington , Texas, Dallas, Middleburg, San Francisco, New York, Charlotte, Raleigh , North Carolina, Orlando, Jacksonville , Florida, Houston, San Antonio , Texas, Florida, Texas, Vermont, Green Mountain State, California
Hong Kong CNN —Chinese shares haven’t just had a bad start to 2024. The astonishing losses, reminiscent of the last Chinese stock market crash of 2015-2016, highlight a crisis of confidence among investors concerned about the country’s future. But on the same day, major state-owned banks moved to support the Chinese yuan, in order to prevent the currency from falling too fast as Chinese shares plunged, according to a Reuters report, citing unnamed sources. Topics related to the “market plunge” and “China’s stock market rescue” were trending on Weibo on Tuesday. “I’m sad about today’s stock market performance,” Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief for state newspaper Global Times, posted on Weibo on Monday.
Persons: It’s, , Goldman Sachs, Wall, Li Qiang, , Nomura, bedeviling, Beijing’s, Li, Ken Cheung, ” Hu Xijin, “ Hu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Reuters, Bloomberg, Monday, People’s Bank of China, , Big Tech, Xinhua, Hong, Mizuho Bank, Global Times Locations: China, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Japan, Asia, Beijing, US, Weibo
Exports for the year as a whole fell for the first time since 2016 as global demand for Chinese-made goods (other than cars) slowed, according to customs data released on Friday. Exports measured in US dollar terms stood at $3.38 trillion in 2023, down by 4.6% compared to the year before. The last time China registered a decline in overseas shipments was in 2016, when exports fell 7.7%. “Sluggish external demand has hit China’s exports.”He expects China will continue to face “difficulties” on export markets as global demand is likely to remain weak and “protectionism and unilateralism” hinder growth, he added. The United States remained China’s largest single-country trading partner in 2023, accounting for 11.2% of total trade.
Persons: ” Lyu, ” Goldman Sachs, Price, won’t, Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, Imports, Administration of Customs, Bloomberg, Getty, PPI, Capital Economics, AFP, ASEAN, European Union Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Russia, United States, Washington, Taicang Port, China's, Jiangsu, Southeast Asia, That’s, , Japan
A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Give in, and companies will be less profitable and at a competitive disadvantage, big business has said. Streaming and entertainment companies (Disney, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Comcast, Paramount and CNN parent company, Warner Bros. Discovery) saw 2.5% growth in new investors on Public during the writers strike, which began in May and ended in early October. Nothing to sweat for buy-and-hold investors: Even investors who buy index funds and are concerned about the effects of the strike probably can take a deep breath.
Persons: It’s, haven’t, Ford, Ginger Graham, Walgreens, , Matt Egan, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, ” Dimon, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN — Corporate, Cornell University’s Labor, Public, Ford, GM, Apple, Netflix, Comcast, Paramount, CNN, Warner Bros, Hollywood, Entertainment, Morningstar, General Motors, Walgreens, Pharmacy, JPMorgan, of Commerce, Israel - America Chamber of Commerce Locations: New York, Arizona , Washington , Massachusetts, Oregon, West Coast, Israel, United States
China's Golden Week: expected consumption boom disappoints
  + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
Hong Kong CNN —China has concluded its Golden Week holiday on a muted note, with key travel and spending data showing weaker-than-expected recovery in consumption amid a wider economic slump. Before the holiday, the ministry had expected domestic travel to hit 896 million trips, and tourism spending to reach 782.5 billion yuan ($107 billion). According to the National Immigration Administration, on average 1.48 million people crossed the border every day during the Golden Week holiday. Weakness at the box officeChina’s box office hit multi-year lows during the holiday week. A recovery in domestic consumption not related to the Golden Week also fell short of expectations.
Persons: ” Goldman Sachs, Tesla, BYD Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Ministry of Culture, Tourism, National Immigration Administration, Shenyang North Railway, Stringer, Getty, Citi, Entertainment, Tencent, China Passenger Car Association Sunday, CNN, EV Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, China's, Liaoning, AFP, Tourism
TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares mostly sank Tuesday over worries about a possible U.S. government shutdown and the troubled Chinese economy. Political Cartoons View All 1179 ImagesRealization is sinking in that the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates high well into next year. Higher yields are at the head of a long line of concerns weighing on Wall Street. On Wall Street, Amazon rose 1.7% and was the strongest single force pushing up on the S&P 500. Also on the losing end of Wall Street were stocks of travel-related companies, which slumped under the weight of worries about higher fuel costs.
Persons: Australia's, Korea's Kospi, Evergrande, , Tina Teng, That’s, ” Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, what’s, haven’t, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, Brent, Stan Choe Organizations: TOKYO, CMC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Big Tech, Netflix, Walt Disney Co, Warner Brothers Discovery, Southwest Airlines, Norwegian Cruise, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, U.S, AP Locations: Hong, Shanghai, Canada, U.S, Anthropic, Norwegian, New York
New York CNN —Goldman Sachs is warning clients that Washington is on a collision course with its first government shutdown in five years. A shutdown later this year would wipe out 0.2 percentage points from growth per week, according to Goldman Sachs projections. Assuming just “modest” economic and market impact, a government shutdown should have “little effect” on central bank policy, according to Goldman Sachs. However, Goldman Sachs said a “prolonged” shutdown that starts in October could add to the arguments in favor of the Fed keeping policy on hold at the November meeting. The 2013 shutdown delayed the release of most federal economic reports, including ones on inflation, jobs and retail sales.
Persons: New York CNN — Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs, Greg Valliere, Kevin McCarthy, ” Valliere Organizations: New, New York CNN, Justice Department, Fitch, Washington, Social Security, AGF Investments, Federal Reserve Locations: New York, Washington, Ukraine,
New York CNN —A senior official at the Federal Reserve is pushing back against growing hopes on Wall Street that the central bank could be nearly done raising interest rates. In a pair of speeches on Saturday and on Monday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman warned that multiple rate hikes could be required to get inflation back to healthy levels. By contrast, many investors and some leading economists have been predicting the Fed will raise interest rates just one more time, or perhaps none. “We expect the decline in core inflation to more than outweigh the mid-year resilience in growth and wage data,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote on Friday. Investors are pricing in a 26% chance of one quarter-point rate hike through the end of the year and just a 2.5% chance of multiple hikes.
Persons: New York CNN —, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Atlanta . Bowman, , ” Bowman, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Fed Locations: New York, Atlanta ., Colorado Springs , Colorado
“While the company’s declining revenue and profit were disappointing, its long-term growth prospects remain encouraging,” said Brady Wang, associate director at Counterpoint Research. “The short-term frenzy about the AI demand definitely cannot extrapolate for the long term. Still, the company’s earnings of 181.8 billion Taiwan dollars ($5.85 billion) for the quarter ending in June beat forecasts. “We see TSMC well-positioned for a strong growth outlook in 2024,” Goldman Sachs said in a research note. “We expect a solid 2024-onward outlook on the back of its leading position in AI chip manufacturing,” Citi Research analysts said in a note.
Persons: , Brady Wang, Mark Liu, ” Liu, ” Goldman Sachs, Organizations: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Counterpoint Research, , ” Citi Research Locations: Arizona, Taiwan
China cuts loan prime rate as economic recovery fizzles out
  + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
The rate cuts come as Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, slash their forecasts for China’s economy. The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday trimmed its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points from 3.65% to 3.55%, and reduced the five-year rate by the same margin to 4.2%. This is the first time the PBOC has cut both LPR rates since August 2022, when renewed Covid lockdowns and a deepening property downturn were pummeling the economy. “The 10 bps rate cut[s] are unlikely to stimulate business confidence and housing demand,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank. Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks slid after Tuesday’s rate cuts.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Covid, , Ken Cheung, , ” Goldman Sachs, Fu Linghui Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of China, Mizuho Bank, Shanghai, National Bureau, Statistics, NBS Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing
The US economy is the world’s largest, so the relatively modest effects on growth could be good news for investors who feared the debt ceiling crisis could have posed a greater and more widespread drag. Here’s what’s in the proposed deal and how it would show up in the broader economy. What’s in the debt ceiling dealThe deal would suspend the federal government’s $31.4 trillion debt limit through January 2025. The debt deal and GDPEconomists at Goldman Sachs expect the deal to reduce federal spending by as much as 0.2% of gross domestic product per year over the two years of the deal, compared with their baseline estimate. “Getting this uncertainty out of the way for markets and decision makers has a real impact,” said Mike Skordeles, head of US economics at Truist Advisory Services.
Persons: Joe Biden, Mark Zandi, Biden, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Ian Shepherdson, Gregory Daco, , Mike Skordeles, Zandi, ” Michael Reynolds Organizations: DC CNN, House Republicans, Moody’s, CNN, Internal Revenue Service, Congressional, Pantheon, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Truist Advisory Services, Investment, Locations: Washington, West Virginia
Hong Kong CNN —Holiday spending during China’s Golden Week has surged past pre-pandemic levels for the first time in three years, in a sign the country’s travelers have fully emerged from the depths of Covid-related restrictions and are eager to live large to make up for lost time. Alipay, the country’s biggest digital payment app, reported a 200% increase in online holiday spending from a year earlier. “The fact that domestic tourism spending is now back to 2019 levels suggests that the reopening boost to consumer spending has largely run its course,” said Capital Economics analysts in a Thursday report. “The swift recovery in in-person services has been the major driver of China’s post-Covid recovery this year,” they said. However, “the lackluster property recovery, a global slowdown and rising geopolitical conflict remain major challenges for China’s recovery to be sustained.”
“These proposed institutional changes reflect key focus areas of Chinese policymakers in the next few years, namely improving financial regulation coordination to enhance financial stability,” Goldman Sachs analysts said on Wednesday. Among the changes announced Tuesday during the annual gathering of the National People’s Congress, Beijing will set up a new powerful financial regulator: the National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA). VCG/Getty ImagesA super regulatorChina’s financial system has traditionally been jointly overseen by the People’s Bank of China, the CBIRC and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). The new regulator is meant to “better manage risks” in the financial system and strengthen the supervision of “institutions, behaviors, and functions,” the government proposal said. The move comes as risks to the stability of China’s financial system are rising amid a housing market slump and economic slowdown.
U.S banks warn of recession risk, inflation hurting consumers
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
NEW YORK, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The biggest U.S. banks are bracing for a worsening economy next year as inflation threatens consumer demand, according to executives Tuesday. "Those things might very well derail the economy and cause this mild to hard recession that people are worried about," he said. "Economic growth is slowing,” Goldman Sachs' chief executive David Solomon said. In banking, the job market remains "surprisingly tight" and competition for talent is "as tough as ever," he said. Reporting by Lananh Nguyen and Saeed Azhar in New York and Noor Zainab Hussain in Bengaluru; Editing by Lananh Nguyen and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
In a note on Monday, Goldman Sachs analysts warned that the upcoming debt limit battle in Washington could spark the most uncertainty since the disruptive 2011 debates that cost America its perfect AAA credit score and caused chaos on Wall Street. “To raise the debt limit next year, bipartisan support will be necessary but hard to achieve,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in the report. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that the political environment has “echoes of 1995 and 2011” — two very tense standoffs over the debt limit that hurt Main Street and Wall Street. Pain ahead: “It seems likely that uncertainty over the debt limit in 2023 could lead to substantial volatility in financial markets,” wrote Goldman analysts. “A failure to make timely payments would likely hit consumer confidence hard,” Goldman Sachs wrote.
“To raise the debt limit next year, bipartisan support will be necessary but hard to achieve,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in the report. Republican Senator John Thune of South Dakota told Bloomberg last week the debt ceiling could be a way to push through budget cuts. Goldman Sachs noted that the political environment next year will have “echoes of 1995 and 2011” — the two most tense standoffs over the debt limit in recent history. The good news is Washington appears to have plenty of time to reach a compromise on the debt ceiling before things get dicey. “Funds could run dry as soon as July and as late as October,” Goldman Sachs said.
BEIJING — China on Friday eased some of its draconian Covid rules, including shortening quarantines by two days for close contacts of infected people and for inbound travelers, and removing a penalty for airlines for bringing in too many cases. Under the new rules, centralized quarantine times for close contacts and travelers from abroad were shortened from seven days to five days. The requirement for three further days in home isolation after centralized quarantine remains. Inbound passengers are transported by bus to their quarantine hotels after arriving at Pudong International Airport in Shanghai in January. “This meeting further illustrates policymakers have started to focus more on optimizing the Covid control policies,” Goldman Sachs said in a note following Thursday’s Politburo Standing Committee meeting but before Friday’s announcement.
New York CNN —While investors, business leaders and some economic models continue to warn a recession is imminent, Wall Street’s most powerful investment bank remains cautiously optimistic. Goldman Sachs told clients on Monday it still sees a 35% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months. “We still see a very plausible non-recessionary four-step path from the high-inflation economy of the present to a low-inflation economy of the future,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report. In other words, a recession is not a slam dunk. Goldman Sachs concedes that there has been “much less progress” on the price side.
New York CNN Business —Goldman Sachs is urging the Federal Reserve to be patient in its quest to squash inflation. Goldman Sachs is cautioning the Fed against overdoing it. The warning from Goldman Sachs comes as recession predictions continue to pile up. By contrast, Goldman Sachs is stressing that a downturn is hardly a foregone conclusion. “The US economy is growing well below its long-term potential rate but does not appear to be on the brink of recession at the moment,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote.
Priorities presented at the political gathering of more than 2,000 party members will also set China’s trajectory for the next five years or even longer. In his speech Sunday, Xi struck a confident tone, highlighting China’s growing strength and rising influence under his first decade in power. China's President Xi Jinping speaks during the opening session of the 20th Chinese Communist Party's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 16, 2022. And China’s economy is in bad shape. Meantime, a comparison between this year’s speech and the last one delivered by Xi in 2017 at the 19th party congress revealed a potentially worrying trend.
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